Downside trends in the fixed-income assets market may intensify over the next year and a half due to the easing of the ECB monetary policy. In turn, market rates of P2P lending tend to reach their maximum already at the end of 2025 due to the expected growth of the gap between the ECB key rate and inflation.

According to ECB data, the average yield on consumer deposits (of any maturity) at the end of August amounted to about 2.96%, and bonds – 3.06%. “The resulting excess yields on bonds and deposits are still present, but will soon level off.” – the analysts of the Robocash platform comment.

P2P lending has reached an impressive 11.4% on average, as statistics from the Todocrowdlending blog shows. In a recent study, Robocash analysts noted that the asset’s real return has started to look more modest against the backdrop of riskier instruments, but it already offers a fairly attractive risk premium.

The trajectory of bond and deposit yields will only accelerate and this trend is unlikely to change over the next year and a half. “We expect the average yield on bonds to be 2.93% by the end of 2024 and 1.93% by the end of 2025. For deposits, it could be around 2.88% by the end of 2024 and 2.32% by the end of 2025.” – the analysts note.

As for P2P lending yields, the experts predict that the upward trend is likely to continue until at least the first half of 2025. The trend rate is expected to be 11.59% in 2024 and 12.4% in 2025. “Some slowdown in 2025 is possible due to reaching historically high levels. And the inflation predicted by our model could become deflationary and cause a short-term slowdown in the economy. However, as the P2P instrument grows, it’s likely to attract increasing interest from investors, who may well want to shift their focus away from corporate high-yield bonds.” – the experts add.