Latest HPI indicates positivity in the market
The latest HPI data from e.surv, powered by Acadata, shows a 2.5% annual decrease in the average sale price of a home in England and Wales, which reached £357,300 in February. Despite this annual decline, there was a positive monthly growth of 0.7%.
This marks the second consecutive month of growth in prices supported by a flurry of household moves ahead of stamp duty changes, but also through underlying momentum driven by stronger household finances and lower mortgage rates. Rob Owens, head of research at e.surv commented: “Alongside the HPI data, there has been an increase in transaction and mortgage approval volumes, all indicating strong pent-up demand. Expectations of further rate cuts this year could sustain this momentum, even with the upcoming stamp duty changes.
“Despite these gains, there is still some way to go with prices remaining 2.5% below where they were this time last year.”
In February, every region of the UK saw month-on-month growth, but a regional divide remains when comparing year-on-year data. Wales, the Midlands, and the North show modest gains, while Southern England, particularly London and the South East, continues to struggle. The average London house price is still down 6.7% year on year, creating a significant drag on the national data.
Looking ahead to the Spring Budget set for later this month, significant housing stimulus is unlikely due to budget constraints. The ongoing global economic uncertainty has led to higher inflation and borrowing costs in the UK, limiting the government’s headroom to increase spending across all services.