Christmas fails to save 2024 trading
The later timing of Black Friday in 2024 meant it fell into December, rather than November figures, while the reverse was true in 2023. This artificially worsened November figures and improved the December figures. This effect cancels out for the ‘three month to December’ figure.
Covering the four weeks 24 November – 28 December 2024
- For 2024 overall, UK Total Retail sales increased by 0.7% from 2023. Food growth was 3.3% and the Non-Food decline was 1.5% for the year.
- For the three months to December (the Golden Quarter), sales growth was 0.4% year on year.
- UK Total Retail sales increased by 3.2% year on year in December, against a growth of 1.9% in December 2023. This was above the 3-month average growth of 0.4% and above the 12-month average growth of 0.7%.
- Food sales increased by 1.7% year on year in December, against a growth of 6.3% in December 2023. This was below the 3-month average growth of 2.1% and below the 12-month average growth of 3.3%.
- Non-Food sales increased by 4.4% year on year in December, against a decline of 2.1% in December 2023. This was above the 3-month average decline of 1.1% and above the 12-month average decline of 1.5%.
- In-Store Non-Food sales increased by 0.4% year on year in December, against a decline of 2.9% in December 2023. This was above the 3-month average decline of 2.4% and above the 12-month average decline of 2.2%.
- Online Non-Food sales increased by 11.1% year on year in December, against a decline of 0.8% in December 2023. This was above the 3-month average growth of 1.2% and above the 12-month average decline of 0.4%.
- The online penetration rate (the proportion of Non-Food items bought online) increased to 39.6% in December from 37.2% in December 2023. This was above the 12-month average of 36.6%.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Following a challenging year marked by weak consumer confidence and difficult economic conditions, the crucial ‘golden quarter’ failed to give 2024 the send-off retailers were hoping for. Non-food was particularly hard-hit, with sales contracting from the previous year. Food sales fared better over the Christmas period, ticking up slightly from the previous year, meanwhile beauty products, jewellery and electricals made a strong showing under the tree this year.
“While we project sales growth to average 1.2% in 2025, this is below the projected shop price inflation of 1.8%. This means volumes are likely to fall this year, all while the regulatory and tax burden on retailers will increase costs by £7bn from rising National Insurance Contributions, increasing national living wage, confirmed in the Budget, and new packaging levies. With little hope of covering these costs through higher sales, retailers will likely push up prices and cut investment in stores and jobs, harming our high streets and the communities that rely on them. Government must find ways to mitigate this, so that retailers can invest more in growth and jobs, starting with its planned business rates reform where it must ensure that no shop ends up paying higher rates than they do already.”
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail & leisure, KPMG, said: “With Black Friday falling as late as it did, this year it was part of the Christmas shopping season even more so than in previous years.
“December, coupled with Black Friday week at the end of November, delivered welcome sales growth for retailers. Computing and mobile phones, and beauty products, particularly saw sizeable jumps in sales both in-store and online, with the likes of AI-enabled tech and beauty advent calendars boosting festive takings.
However, sales growth during the golden quarter of October to December was minimal, reflecting the ongoing careful management of many household budgets during a time when many costs remain at a heightened level compared to past years.
“In 2025, we will see retailers increasingly utilising customer data and AI technology to deliver increased personalisation when it comes to targeting products and offers to their current, and potential, customers.”
Food & drink sector performance | Sarah Bradbury, CEO, IGD, said: “Early results for Christmas trading show some positive signs with both grocery sales and volumes up compared to last December, although the rate of growth has slowed compared to 2023. The festive season usually leads to a lift in shopper confidence; December 2024 was no different, with wage growth outstripping inflation, contributing to the uptick this year.
As is often the case, some shoppers opted to treat themselves by trading-up with some product choices this Christmas. However, with the economic outlook for 2025 remaining relatively weak, and with households facing the prospect of rising bills, this shopper behaviour could be short-lived.”
