Latest full-market HPI suggests a turning tide

The latest HPI data from e.surv and Acadata indicates a turning tide with a 0.1% increase in the average sale price of a home in England and Wales, a welcome change following four months of decline.

A combination of strong wage growth and strong first-time buyer demand due to Stamp Duty relief are thought to be the driving factors behind the change.

Rob Owens, head of research at e.surv commented: “For the short term at least, the conditions look favourable for continued, modest growth. Key market indicators like mortgage approvals are on the rise and the continued underlying housing shortage remains.

“Despite this month’s increase, year on year prices are still in decline. As a measure of true housing inflation, our HPI doesn’t reflect the extent of the recovery reported in other indices based on mortgage applications or asking prices.”

London and the South East continue to underperform, with affordability and mortgage rates preventing many from entering the market. It’s a more optimistic picture in the regions; the North is leading market recovery with the North East and North West both seeing average prices rise. Yorkshire and the Humber, the Midlands and Wales are also recovering well.

Also of note is that the annual re-weighting of the data has seen a slight dampening of pricing due to the increased volume of flats in the housing mix. Almost 18% of properties sold in 2024 were flats, reflecting increased demand for affordable properties.