Colder June dulled consumer spend

Covering the five weeks 26 May – 29 June 2024

• UK Total retail sales decreased by 0.2% year on year in June, against a growth of 4.9% in June 2023. This was above the 3-month average decline of 1.1% and below the 12-month average growth of 1.5%.
• Food sales increased 1.1% year on year over the three months to June, against a growth of 9.8% in June 2023. This is below the 12-month average growth of 5.5%. For the month of June, Food was in growth year-on-year.

• Non-Food sales decreased 2.9% year on year over the three-months to June, against a growth of 0.3% in June 2023. This is steeper than the 12-month average decline of 1.9%. For the month of June, Non-Food was in decline year-on-year.
• In-store Non-Food sales over the three months to June decreased 3.7% year on year, against a growth of 2.0% in June 2023. This is below the 12-month average decline of 1.5%.
• Online Non-Food sales decreased by 0.7% year on year in June, against an average decline of 1.0% in June 2023. This was above the 3-month and 12-month average declines of 1.5% and 2.6% respectively.

• The online penetration rate (the proportion of Non-Food items bought online) increased to 36.2% in June from 35.2% in June 2023. This was same as the 12-month average of 36.2%.

Helen Dickinson OBE, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Retail sales performed poorly in June as the cooler weather during the first half of the month dulled consumer spending. Sales of weather-sensitive categories such as clothing and footwear, as well as DIY and gardening were hit particularly hard, especially compared to the surge in spending during last June’s heatwave. Electronics sales had a better month as football fans cheering on their national teams upgraded their home entertainment systems and people replaced their pandemic purchases. Retailers remain hopeful that as the summer social season gets into full swing and the weather improves, sales will follow suit.

“The retail industry is vital to the nation’s economy as an important source of employment and investment. The industry shapes local communities and provides three million jobs across the country. Through its scale and reach, retail can make a huge contribution to Labour’s policy goals, and the industry stands ready to work with the new Government to find ways to make this happen.”

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail & leisure, KPMG, said: “Summer may finally have arrived, but it did little to persuade consumers to hit the shops, with retail sales flatlining at 0.2% in June.

“Items for the home topped the best-selling categories, with homewares, cooking accessories and furniture all seeing positive growth in June as consumers made the most of the sunshine to enjoy time at home.  Computing sales also continued to do well, achieving double digit growth both online and on the high street. Despite the warmer weather and the football providing opportunities for people to gather at home, food and drink sales were disappointing in June, recording just 1.16% growth, and clothing and footwear also saw a disappointing performance, with negative growth both on the high street and online.

“Despite pressure on household finances easing, with petrol and energy costs and shop price inflation all continuing to fall, consumers remain incredibly reluctant to take the brakes off of their spending. The stimulus of good weather, Wimbledon and Euro 24, which was hoped would drive consumer spending, has so far failed to materialise and financial concerns remain with many households.

“Retailers, who are running to stand still at the moment, having exhausted all of the levers they have at their disposal to cut costs and drive sales via promotions, will be looking to the new Government to boost the economy and confidence.  The overall economic conditions may slowly be improving, but the health of the sector remains fragile, and action is needed now to help support this vital economic contributor – particularly around neglected areas such as business rate reform “.

Food & Drink sector performance | Sarah Bradbury, CEO, IGD, said: “Despite unseasonable, cool weather throughout most of June, the grocery retail market has enjoyed both value and volume growth in the last month, compared to June 2023.

“Notably, value and volume performance improved in the final week of June, coinciding with the brief but intense heatwave felt across the UK. It is also worth keeping in mind that although value and volume growth is lower compared to last month’s performance, the market is annualising against significant growth that occurred in June 2023.

“On a different note, while the election campaign has not impacted shopper confidence during June, we might expect to see a boost following the election. We have seen a positive bump for shopper confidence immediately following the three previous general elections, therefore we should expect something similar as we move through July.”