Covid-19 – A changed world
Hard to imagine that in the last article we were thinking about something so humdrum as the possibilities for future transport options and the lessons they might hold for the development of technology in our Industry.
How the world changes! Our lives, in such a short space of time, have been massively affected and previous certainties thrown into upset and disarray.
Without doubt, the economies of the world are taking a battering and, as the situation continues, the consensus is that the damage is intensifying into something wholly unparalleled.
But one thing I said in that long-ago article strikes me as being still relevant. And that is how there is a tendency for us to be blinded by science, to be over-reliant on arguments which are dressed up as information, on opinion which is stated as fact.
Don’t get me wrong, readers know that I am by background a scientist and I’m very focused on evidence and data assessment.
But the idea that this, or any other country’s approach to dealing with the pandemic is, to use the government mantra, “guided by the science” is to oversimplify, or worse to hide from, a dilemma which is scientific, economic, political and social.
The modelling of this disease is exactly that: a model. We simply don’t and cannot know for sure what trajectory the virus will take and the effects it will have. For example, is it weather susceptible (it looks as though it may like cool and dry)? Will it mutate into something more/less harmful? Can we develop herd immunity – or is there limited/ no protection from having previously survived infection?
Various chemicals have been touted as potential lifesavers and been championed by those who should know better. It all becomes redolent of the times when the newly discovered element radium was sold as a health supplement when what it actually did was dissolve the happy patient’s brain and bones…
It’s true that some antivirals may well turn out to be beneficial and blind testing trials will eventually identify those that have some real potential. Equally it looks quite feasible (but not certain) that vaccines will at some stage become available with work progressing at a previously unparalleled pace. But still that won’t stop infection rates for months, maybe even years to come.
It seems to me that ultimately the reality is that to keep the economy alive, there has conversely to be a rate of population loss which is socially and politically tolerated, an acceptance that human life is no longer to be held sacrosanct and preserved at all cost. (Even if we feel our hackles rise at the very suggestion that it might be described this way.)
To get the economy moving again will require accepting a greater degree of risk and a series of actions that keep infection rates at a euphemistically described “manageable” level.
Evidence from other countries suggests that a more rigorous testing and isolation approach may provide some protection and facilitate a more lenient approach to lockdowns. But make no mistake; without an effective treatment for this infection, relaxation for the greater benefit of the economy means that more individuals will be paying the price.
Now I don’t want to be maudlin or fatalistic. One thing that we know – and I believe I can say this without rose tinted glasses – is that the invoice finance industry is uniquely well placed to support economic growth and recovery. Such providers are in a much better position to support SMEs than any traditional lender, even allowing for state backed loan schemes, because the service is self-secured and monitored. We in the Industry have exactly the experience and capability to help these businesses manage their cashflows. The credit environment is of course going to be very difficult; whilst recently, non-recourse business had become a higher proportion of overall European turnover, I’m not convinced that it will have much to offer in the coming months and maybe years.
And whatever support is available, to be able to benefit from it, a business needs still to be there. The political and economic imperative to stop businesses and livelihoods going to the wall is becoming more and more pressing as every day of controls passes by.
Meanwhile, the EUF’s figures show that RF grew to its highest ever levels in Europe in 2019 with client turnover of €1.9bn, advances of €275bn and 280k clients. I start to wonder how long it will take for us to get back to those giddy heights.
John Brehcist MA(Oxon) MBA
roundwindow Consultancy Services
